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"You can't get the box!" Maersk, Kuehne & Nagel Research judgment is coming! June 1 ushered in a new wave of price increases

2024-05-12

With the passage of time, the Red Sea situation caused by the diversion, the impact is still emerging. Recently, container freight rates have risen again, freight forwarding companies generally reflect the "lack of boxes" problem is serious, "freight rates began to rise again, simply can not grab the box!" The person in charge of a freight forwarding company said that the "lack of boxes" is essentially a lack of shipping space.

On the basis of the price increase of the two existing shipping companies in May, after the "May Day" holiday, liner companies returned to normal, but container transport rates still maintained a rising trend. In particular, the two major shipping giants Maersk and CMA CGM have announced plans to raise prices in June, that is, to increase the Nordic FAK rate from June 1. Among them, Maersk has a maximum of 5,900 dollars per 40-foot container, while CMA CGM has raised it again by 1,000 dollars on the basis of 15 days, to 6,000 dollars per 40-foot container.

In addition, Maersk will impose a South American peak season surcharge from June 1 - $2,000 per 40-foot container.

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Market analysts pointed out that the current market idle capacity is limited, especially in the Red Sea circumnavigation background, the current capacity is relatively insufficient, and the circumnavigation effect is becoming more obvious.

From the current spot freight rate performance, the Shanghai-Rotterdam route in the European route on May 10, the quotation range of liner companies is 4040-5554 US dollars /FEU, compared with the quotation range of 2932-3885 US dollars /FEU on April 1, there is a significant increase. Similarly, the United States line, Shanghai to Los Angeles and the port of Long Beach freight rates have also increased significantly, May 10, the highest offer reached $6457 /FEU.

Current situation and trend of freight rate in May!

SCFI: The Shanghai Container Export Freight Rate Index (SCFI) rose 18.82% on Friday, marking a five-week rise. Among them, the major routes in Europe and North America have reached about 20%, especially the European route, which has risen nearly 25%, becoming the biggest increase this week.

WCI: On Thursday, according to Drewry World Container Index (WCI) data, European routes were up 20%, Mediterranean routes and US-East routes were up 16%, while US-West routes were up 18%.

NCFI: On the 10th, the Ningbo Shipping Exchange released data showing that the NCFI composite index rose by 13.3% this week. Among them, the European route freight index rose the most, 22.9%; The Western Mediterranean freight index also increased by 23.5 percent. In addition, the East African route freight index has a large fluctuation, up as high as 47.5%. On the other hand, the index of freight rates on the East and West routes increased by 3.6% and 5.8%, respectively.

Analysts of Ningbo Shipping Exchange said that under the influence of liner companies generally pushing up freight rates, freight rates of many route markets rose. On this basis, transportation demand for North American routes has also continued to rebound. The voluntary price increase of liner companies is only one of the reasons for the increase in freight rates. At the same time, due to the detour of ships in the European route, the voyage time is increased, the fleet turnover rate is reduced, and the liner companies need to relocate ships or stop sailing to maintain the service efficiency.

At the same time, COSCO Sea Control publicly said that the company's current production and operation are normal, and the export direction of Europe and the United States is full. According to the latest market report released by Kuehne Nagel, the world's largest maritime freight forwarding company, the overall space situation of European routes is relatively tight in May, and freight rates are expected to continue to rise in the next two weeks; In terms of the United States line, the loading rate of the United States line in the first half of the month continues to be in a full load state, especially in the United States West, and the situation of limited low-cost space and tight FAK space will continue until the second half of the year.

According to industry analysts, the shipping market in May has seen a significant rebound in cargo volume. Especially after the end of the May Day holiday, the demand for containers on North American routes surged, resulting in tight shipping space and a difficult situation to find a box. A number of well-known shipping companies have announced that they will add a comprehensive surcharge in May. At present, CMA, COSCO, ZIM and Evergreen are known, and it is expected to charge $2000 per 20 feet container; Yang Ming and ONE told customers to charge an additional $1,000.

Maersk: The Asia-Europe capacity has been reduced by nearly 20%, the cost has increased, and the freight rate has risen

According to shipping consultancy Sea-Intelligence, the punctuality rate of Danish shipping giant Maersk dropped significantly to 49% in the first quarter of this year from 65.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The change has sparked widespread concern both inside and outside the industry.

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In addition, due to a series of knock-on effects such as ship stacking, delays and shortages of equipment and capacity, Maersk estimates that in the second quarter, the industry will lose 15% to 20% of capacity from the Far East to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean market. To address this challenge, Maersk is improving reliability by speeding up sailing and increasing capacity, and has already leased an additional 125,000 containers.

Regarding the additional surcharges, Maersk said that these charges are to offset the longer range, higher speed and additional fuel costs. Fuel use per voyage, for example, has increased by 40 per cent, while charter rates are three times higher, typically for five years.

Maersk will continue to carry out cost control to reduce the additional costs caused by the disruption of the shipping business, and improve the profit of the logistics and services business, Mr Cowen Sheng said at the press conference. He acknowledged that "overcapacity remains a challenge and will come," but predicted its impact would be delayed.

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